Really this is a tough fight to call. It's easy to say machida will just run rings around hendo and never be in the way, but hendo is very experienced and has fought maybe the most variety of styles of anyone and found a way to beat a lot of them. The run he is on is the best he has ever had and he has looked incredible through it. I think machida will do well on the counter and probably on the ground if he can get it there, but the thing is I don't think he has the straight up power that hendo does (especially in a brawl), its more precision than bludgeoning.
I think hendo will bait machida, he won't be trying to commit, he will bait concentrating on defense and then unload. By being a target for machida he becomes machidas weakness and then beats him in an exhange, barraging like he did on shogun. With that I think he gets the ko/tko because he won't be waiting around when he connects, it will be over.
Fortune telling I know, I just see that happening unless machida keeps circling.